Caption – Ming-Chi Kuo shared iPhone 17 demand analysis. (Image – Apple YouTube Channel)
The iPhone 17 series is off to a stronger start than last year’s lineup, according to renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. After reviewing production targets and shipping lead times from the first week of pre-orders, Kuo reports that demand for the iPhone 17 models has surpassed that of the iPhone 16 series
Kuo shared detailed posts on X (formerly Twitter) revealing some key facts about how the first week of launch has been for iPhone. Here are some key points.
The iPhone 16 series struggled with weaker-than-expected pre-orders in its first week. In contrast, Apple’s latest iPhone 17 lineup appears to be rebounding, showing higher demand despite increased production volumes.
Kuo based his analysis on two key factors. One is Production volumes, as estimated through Apple’s supply chain sources and the other is Shipping delays, measured by how quickly delivery times extended after pre-orders opened.
Apple set its Q3 production target for the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max 25% higher compared to the same period in 2024. Despite this increase, delivery times are now around a week longer, suggesting stronger demand for the new models.
Kuo concludes, “In terms of total production volume for the third quarter for the Pro Max, Pro, and standard models, the iPhone 17 is approximately 25% higher YoY compared to the iPhone 16, but the shipping time has only increased by about one week, indicating stronger overall pre-order demand for […] three iPhone 17 models. Conclusion: The first weekend pre-order demand for the iPhone 17 series is stronger than last year’s iPhone 16.”
Among the lineup, the iPhone 17 Pro Max stands out as the most sought-after device. Apple reportedly boosted its production by about 60% compared to the iPhone 16 Pro Max, yet shipping times remain nearly identical between the two generations, highlighting the phone’s popularity.
“The strongest demand is still for the Pro Max. The iPhone 17 Pro Max’s production volume in 3Q25 is approximately 60% higher than that of the 16 Pro Max in the same period last year, yet the shipping times remain similar,” writes Kuo.
The newly introduced iPhone Air presents a different picture. Apple set production for the Air at three times the volume of last year’s iPhone 16 Plus. So far, this seems to have been the right move. Pre-orders remain open with no noticeable shipping delays. Kuo writes, “The iPhone Air is available in stock at launch, which on the surface looks softer than the iPhone 16 Plus last year (2 weeks delivery time). However, the Air’s 3Q25 build plan is roughly 3x (~+200% YoY) that of the 16 Plus in 3Q24, and there’s no direct historical analog for its positioning in the lineup. A fair assessment of demand will require observing sell-through over a longer period.”
According to Kuo’s X post, you can still order an iPhone Air today and receive it on launch day.
This could mean Apple has overestimated initial demand for its ultra-slim model. Kuo cautions that the Air’s performance will need to be evaluated over the coming months before drawing conclusions about its long-term success. The analyst specifies, “Since Apple has not previously offered a product positioned like the Air, it would be more objective to observe demand trends after the initial sales period.”
The iPhone 17 series officially goes on sale this Friday. As anticipation builds, all eyes are on the Pro Max as Apple’s star performer, while the iPhone Air’s trajectory will be closely monitored to see if it can carve out a strong place in the lineup.
Answer. According to Ming-Chi Kuo, the iPhone 17 series saw stronger pre-order demand than the iPhone 16, with Apple increasing production by 25% year-over-year.
Answer. The iPhone 17 Pro Max leads in demand. Despite a 60% production boost over the iPhone 16 Pro Max, its shipping times remain steady, indicating high consumer interest.
Answer. Shipping times are extended by about one week despite higher production volumes, which Kuo interprets as a sign of stronger overall demand for the iPhone 17 lineup.
Answer. Apple tripled production compared to the iPhone 16 Plus, but pre-orders show no shipping delays. Kuo suggests demand may be overestimated and should be monitored post-launch.
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