Highlights
- Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reports that iPhone 17 pre-orders have outpaced iPhone 16 with Apple increasing production by 25% YoY.
- The iPhone 17 Pro Max saw a 60% production boost over its predecessor, yet shipping times remain steady.
- The new iPhone Air shows no shipping delays, suggesting Apple may have overestimated early demand.
Caption – Ming-Chi Kuo shared iPhone 17 demand analysis. (Image – Apple YouTube Channel)
The iPhone 17 series is off to a stronger start than last year’s lineup, according to renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. After reviewing production targets and shipping lead times from the first week of pre-orders, Kuo reports that demand for the iPhone 17 models has surpassed that of the iPhone 16 series
Kuo shared detailed posts on X (formerly Twitter) revealing some key facts about how the first week of launch has been for iPhone. Here are some key points.
iPhone 17 Series First-Weekend Preorder Takeaways:
1. Conclusion: First-weekend preorder demand for the iPhone 17 lineup outpaced last year’s iPhone 16.
2. For the Pro Max, Pro, and standard models, planned 3Q25 production is about 25% higher YoY, while estimated delivery lead…
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) September 15, 2025
iPhone 17系列首週末預購重點分析：
1. 結論：iPhone 17系列之首週末預購需求優於去年的iPhone 16。
2. 以Pro Max、Pro與標準版的第三季總生產量來說，iPhone 17較iPhone 16多約25% YoY，但出貨時間僅約增加一週，代表上述三款iPhone 17機型的總預購需求較好。
3. iPhone…
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) September 15, 2025
iPhone 17 Off To Stronger Start Compared to iPhone 16
The iPhone 16 series struggled with weaker-than-expected pre-orders in its first week. In contrast, Apple’s latest iPhone 17 lineup appears to be rebounding, showing higher demand despite increased production volumes.
Kuo based his analysis on two key factors. One is Production volumes, as estimated through Apple’s supply chain sources and the other is Shipping delays, measured by how quickly delivery times extended after pre-orders opened.
Apple set its Q3 production target for the iPhone 17, 17 Pro, and 17 Pro Max 25% higher compared to the same period in 2024. Despite this increase, delivery times are now around a week longer, suggesting stronger demand for the new models.
Kuo concludes, “In terms of total production volume for the third quarter for the Pro Max, Pro, and standard models, the iPhone 17 is approximately 25% higher YoY compared to the iPhone 16, but the shipping time has only increased by about one week, indicating stronger overall pre-order demand for […] three iPhone 17 models. Conclusion: The first weekend pre-order demand for the iPhone 17 series is stronger than last year’s iPhone 16.”
Among the lineup, the iPhone 17 Pro Max stands out as the most sought-after device. Apple reportedly boosted its production by about 60% compared to the iPhone 16 Pro Max, yet shipping times remain nearly identical between the two generations, highlighting the phone’s popularity.
“The strongest demand is still for the Pro Max. The iPhone 17 Pro Max’s production volume in 3Q25 is approximately 60% higher than that of the 16 Pro Max in the same period last year, yet the shipping times remain similar,” writes Kuo.
iPhone Air’s Different Story
The newly introduced iPhone Air presents a different picture. Apple set production for the Air at three times the volume of last year’s iPhone 16 Plus. So far, this seems to have been the right move. Pre-orders remain open with no noticeable shipping delays. Kuo writes, “The iPhone Air is available in stock at launch, which on the surface looks softer than the iPhone 16 Plus last year (2 weeks delivery time). However, the Air’s 3Q25 build plan is roughly 3x (~+200% YoY) that of the 16 Plus in 3Q24, and there’s no direct historical analog for its positioning in the lineup. A fair assessment of demand will require observing sell-through over a longer period.”
According to Kuo’s X post, you can still order an iPhone Air today and receive it on launch day.
This could mean Apple has overestimated initial demand for its ultra-slim model. Kuo cautions that the Air’s performance will need to be evaluated over the coming months before drawing conclusions about its long-term success. The analyst specifies, “Since Apple has not previously offered a product positioned like the Air, it would be more objective to observe demand trends after the initial sales period.”
The iPhone 17 series officially goes on sale this Friday. As anticipation builds, all eyes are on the Pro Max as Apple’s star performer, while the iPhone Air’s trajectory will be closely monitored to see if it can carve out a strong place in the lineup.
FAQs
Q1. How does the iPhone 17 series compare to the iPhone 16 in first-week demand?
Answer. According to Ming-Chi Kuo, the iPhone 17 series saw stronger pre-order demand than the iPhone 16, with Apple increasing production by 25% year-over-year.
Q2. Which iPhone 17 model is the most popular so far?
Answer. The iPhone 17 Pro Max leads in demand. Despite a 60% production boost over the iPhone 16 Pro Max, its shipping times remain steady, indicating high consumer interest.
Q3. What does the shipping delay suggest about iPhone 17 demand?
Answer. Shipping times are extended by about one week despite higher production volumes, which Kuo interprets as a sign of stronger overall demand for the iPhone 17 lineup.
Q4. How is the new iPhone Air performing in pre-orders?
Answer. Apple tripled production compared to the iPhone 16 Plus, but pre-orders show no shipping delays. Kuo suggests demand may be overestimated and should be monitored post-launch.