No ‘Serious’ Apple Intelligence Performance Until 2026 or 2027, Hints Analyst

Highlights

• Analyst Edison Lee suggests “series” AI performance won’t arrive in iPhone until 2026 or 2027.
• Predicts 5-10% growth in iPhone sales unlikely this year.
• Lee however sees long-term AI potential for Apple over Android devices.

We all know that the rollout of Apple Intelligence is happening gradually. iPhone 16 Series comes with the tag “built for Apple Intelligence,” which hints how it is a device you get with a promise for the future. The gradual roll of Apple Intelligence features starts soon with the first six features set to launch with a new iOS 18.1 update by the end of this month.

However, we won’t see the new Siri version until next year.

While Apple fans are still conflicted about this, a tech analyst recently suggested that we should lower our expectations even further.

According to recent analyst comments, iPhones won’t have “serious” AI performance until 2026 or 2027.

There was talk that Apple Intelligence would drive a surge in iPhone 16 sales since only iPhone 15 Pro users would get the new features without upgrading.

But as of now, it looks like this year’s iPhone sales are about the same as last year, which indicates that AI isn’t a major selling point yet.

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee isn’t surprised by this. He told The Street recently that a 5-10% growth in iPhone sales is “unlikely.”

Although Lee acknowledges that Apple has a key AI advantage over other smartphone brands, he thinks it will be at least 2-3 years before this significantly boosts demand for new iPhones.

“We like Apple Intelligence long term, as Apple is the only hardware-software integrated player that can leverage proprietary data to offer low-cost, personalized AI services,” Lee said.

“However, smartphone hardware needs rework before being capable of serious AI, likely by 2026/27.”

Lee maintains that Apple has what can be termed as a longer-term advantage compared to Android devices in terms of tech and cost development. He seems particularly positive about Apple’s partnership with chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor.

He also expects Apple to show better growth next year but that will be more because of the upcoming slimmer iPhone 17 Air and not so much due to Apple Intelligence.

“We believe AI-capable smartphone tech is likely 2-3 years away due to limitations in high-speed memory and advanced packaging tech. [But] Apple’s thin model (17 Air) in 2025 could attract more upgrade demand,” Lee said.

FAQs

Q1. When will the first six Apple Intelligence features launch on iPhone 16?

Answer. The first six Apple Intelligence features are set to launch by the end of this month.

Q2. What is the expected timeline for serious AI performance in iPhones?

Answer. According to recent analyst comments, iPhones won’t have “serious” AI performance until 2026 or 2027.

Q3. What did Jefferies analyst Edison Lee say about the iPhone’s AI potential?

Answer. Edison Lee thinks a 5-10% growth in iPhone sales is “unlikely” this year. He sees Apple as having a key AI advantage but believes it will be at least 2-3 years before this significantly boosts demand for new iPhones.

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