Ming-Chi Kuo Predicts Stable iPhone 16 Shipments, No Significant Increase

Highlights

• Apple analyst Kuo predicts stable iPhone 16 shipment numbers
• Key suppliers TSMC and Largan report similar order volumes to last year
• iPhone 16 expected to feature the new A18 chip for enhanced AI capabilities
• Potential stable demand hints at a maturing smartphone market

Ming-Chi Kuo, a respected Apple analyst, has cast doubt on recent reports suggesting Apple was planning a significant increase in iPhone 16 shipments for 2024.

This new information challenges previous expectations and offers insights into Apple’s production strategy for its upcoming flagship device.

“The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.” Kuo said in a blog post.

Supplier Insights

Kuo cites recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers, TSMC and Largan, which hint that iPhone 16 orders may not have increased as previously rumoured:

• TSMC stated they “did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.”
• Largan reported that “orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year.”

These statements from major suppliers carry significant weight, as they would be directly impacted by any substantial changes in Apple’s production plans.

Order Expectations

According to Kuo’s understanding:

• Some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024.
• From the EMS/assembly perspective, iPhone 16 orders for the same period remain largely unchanged at about 87 million units.
• This is slightly lower than the iPhone 15 orders for the second half of 2023, which were around 91 million units.

“My understanding is that some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for 2H24, but from the EMS/assembly perspective, the iPhone 16 orders for 2H24 have not seen much change (about 87 million units), still slightly lower than the 2H23 iPhone 15 orders (about 91 million units),” said Kuo.

Kuo concludes that Apple’s iPhone 16 expectations might be in line with iPhone 15 shipments from last year, contradicting earlier reports of a 10% increase.

iPhone 16 Features and Market Implications

Despite the potentially stable order numbers, the iPhone 16 lineup is expected to receive the new A18 chip.

This could be a key marketing point for users interested in Apple Intelligence features, as the base iPhone 15 won’t support AI capabilities.

The powerful new chip with Apple Intelligence support might still prove compelling for many customers, especially those considering the lower-priced iPhone 16 model.

This suggests that Apple may be focusing on feature enhancements rather than volume increases to drive sales and maintain market share.

Industry Impact

The potential lack of increased orders could have broader implications for the smartphone industry.

It may indicate a maturing market where even major players like Apple are seeing stabilised demand rather than continuous growth.

This could influence strategies across the industry, potentially leading to a greater focus on innovation and feature differentiation rather than volume production.

As the fall launch approaches, the market will be watching closely to see how Apple positions the iPhone 16 and whether these new features can drive sales without a significant increase in production orders.

The company’s approach to balancing innovation with production volume could set important precedents for the wider tech industry.

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MEMORY

CONNECTIVITY

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TECHNICAL

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FAQs

What did Ming-Chi Kuo reveal about iPhone 16 shipments?

Kuo indicated that iPhone 16 shipment numbers for 2024 are expected to be stable and not significantly increased, contrary to previous reports.

What insights did Apple suppliers provide?

Key suppliers TSMC and Largan reported that they have not seen a sudden increase in unit growth, with order volumes remaining similar to last year.

What are the expected features of the iPhone 16?

The iPhone 16 is anticipated to feature the new A18 chip, which supports enhanced AI capabilities, particularly appealing to users interested in Apple Intelligence features.

How do the iPhone 16 order expectations compare to iPhone 15?

Kuo noted that iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024 are about 87 million units, slightly lower than the 91 million units for the iPhone 15 in the same period of 2023.

What could stable iPhone 16 orders imply for the industry?

The stable order numbers may suggest a maturing smartphone market with stabilized demand, potentially leading to a greater focus on innovation and feature differentiation over volume production.

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