Highlights

• Huawei’s resurgence in China poses a challenge to Apple’s market share.
• Growing preference for foldable phones impacts iPhone’s popularity in China.
• Apple anticipates a 15% year-over-year drop in iPhone shipments.
• iPhone 16 lineup to focus on stability, with no major design or AI feature changes.

Apple is likely to face a potential downturn in iPhone shipments this year, as per insights from renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Matter of fact, the anticipated decline in iPhone shipments, is likely to be a substantial 15% year-over-year drop. China, it seems, has a major role in this forecast.

According to analyst Ming Chi-Kuo, iPhone shipments in 2024 are “likely to decline significantly by about 15% year-over-year (YoY) due to structural challenges”.

“Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY). Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024,” he said, citing his latest supply chain survey.

“The new high-end mobile phone design paradigm includes AI (GenAI) and foldable phones. The main reason for the decline in the Chinese market is the return of Huawei and the increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice for phone replacement,” he said in his research note.

“Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024,” Kuo wrote.

Samsung has upped shipments of its new Galaxy S24 series this year by 5% to 10% as it sees “higher-than-expected” demand thanks to its AI-powered features, Kuo wrote. Apple, meanwhile, has lowered its shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 in the first half of 2024, he added.

Huawei’s comeback as a leading smartphone maker coupled with the “increasing preference for foldable phones among high-end users as their first choice” in the Chinese market are key reasons for the iPhone’s potential decline, Kuo wrote.

Here’s what you need to know.

Why Apple Shipments Are Likely to Fall in 2024

A significant factor contributing to the predicted decline is the resurgence of Huawei as a formidable player in the Chinese smartphone market.

Huawei’s comeback is likely to reclaim a significant share of the market, which Apple had dominated last year.

Additionally, the growing popularity of foldable phones is reshaping consumer preferences.

High-end users in China, a key market for Apple, are increasingly opting for foldable phones over traditional smartphones.

Apple’s response to these market shifts has been cautious.

The company has reportedly reduced shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to around 200 million units.

This adjustment mirrors the broader trend of decreased demand for iPhones, particularly in China, where Apple’s weekly shipments have reportedly plummeted by 30% to 40% compared to last year.

Future Outlook and the iPhone 16 Lineup

Kuo claims Apple’s strategy for its upcoming iPhone 16 lineup seems focused on stability rather than radical change.

He states that significant design changes or the integration of new artificial intelligence features are not expected in the iPhone models releasing this year.

This conservative approach might impact Apple’s momentum in shipments and ecosystem growth until at least 2025, when more substantial updates are anticipated.

In contrast, competitors like Samsung are experiencing an uptick in demand.

The Galaxy S24 series, for instance, has seen a 5% to 10% increase in shipments, buoyed by its AI-powered features.

As Apple gears up to report its quarterly results, analysts project modest revenue growth, highlighting the challenges the Cupertino-based tech giant faces in a rapidly evolving and increasingly competitive market.

FAQs

What factors are contributing to the potential decline in Apple’s iPhone shipments in 2024?

Huawei’s resurgence in the Chinese market and the increasing popularity of foldable phones are major factors impacting Apple’s dominance, leading to a possible 15% drop in iPhone shipments.

How is Apple responding to the shifting market dynamics in China?

Apple has reportedly reduced its shipment of key components, reflecting a cautious approach in response to the decreased demand for iPhones in the Chinese market.

What can we expect from the iPhone 16 lineup in terms of design and features?

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the iPhone 16 lineup will likely focus on stability without significant design changes or the introduction of new AI features until at least 2025.

How are Apple’s competitors, like Samsung, faring in comparison?

Samsung, with its Galaxy S24 series, is experiencing increased demand, partly due to the incorporation of AI-powered features, indicating a contrasting market trend.

What are Ming-Chi Kuo’s Predictions for iPhone 15 Shipments?

Contrary to conservative market estimates ranging between 70-80 million units, Ming-Chi Kuo forecasts around 80 million units of iPhone 15 shipments.

How Will the iPhone 15 Impact Apple’s Stock Price?

Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the market has been overly conservative about iPhone 15 shipments, leading to stock price corrections. He believes this could offer a favorable trading sentiment and a potential stock rebound for Apple.

Is Apple Likely to Become the Largest Smartphone Brand?

If Apple’s shipment orders for the second half of 2024 remain unchanged, Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that the company could surpass Samsung, with shipments reaching 220-225 million units in 2023.

What About Apple’s Legacy Models?

While Kuo doesn’t elaborate, it is typical for Apple to continue selling previous models alongside new launches. This suggests that iPhone 14 models could still perform well in the market even after the iPhone 15 launch.

What caused the recent decline in Apple’s stock value?

Apple’s stock recently experienced a 3.6% decline, closing at 185.64, primarily due to analyst concerns about the demand for the upcoming iPhone 16 and the overall market outlook for Apple in 2024.

What changes did Barclays analyst Tim Long make to Apple’s stock rating?

Tim Long, an analyst from Barclays, downgraded Apple’s stock from ‘equal weight’ to ‘underweight’, also reducing the price target from 161 to 160.

This change reflects growing concerns about Apple’s future performance and sales.

How have iPhone 15 sales been described, and what is the outlook for iPhone 16?

iPhone 15 sales have been described as “lackluster” by analysts, casting a shadow over the anticipated performance of the iPhone 16.

There are concerns that the iPhone 16 might not significantly boost demand or sales.

What challenges are currently facing Apple’s hardware and services segments?

Apple’s hardware categories, other than the iPhone, are showing signs of stagnation.

Additionally, the services segment, although profitable, faces regulatory scrutiny and is projected to grow by no more than 10% this year.

How is the introduction of Apple Vision Pro expected to impact Apple’s growth in the wearables market?

Priced at $3,499 and set for release in early 2024, the Vision Pro combines virtual and augmented reality, catering to entertainment, communications, and productivity applications.

While the product faced initial skepticism, it opens a new hardware platform for Apple, potentially driving growth in the wearables segment. The key to its success could lie in unique applications like ‘spatial video,’ as suggested by analysts.

What implications does the recent ITC ruling on Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 have for Apple’s future in the wearables sector?

The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Commission, which declared that Apple’s latest smartwatches infringed on patents from Masimo, poses a significant challenge for Apple.

The decision, which impacts the sales of Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2, comes at a time when revenue from the Wearables, Home and Accessories unit has seen a decline.

Also Read: Apple Vision Pro Headset: Limited Units and High Demand Forecasted by Ming-Chi Kuo

Also Read: Apple Vision Pro Poised for End-of-January Release: Ming-Chi Kuo

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