Highlights
- Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will surpass Samsung in 2025, reclaiming the top smartphone brand spot with a 19.4% global market share.
- Strong iPhone 17 sales in the US and China, favourable trade dynamics, a weaker US dollar, and a major upgrade cycle post-COVID are fueling double‑digit growth.
- Apple is expected to sustain leadership through 2029.
Apple is on track to reclaim its long-lost title as the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, according to new data from Counterpoint Research. The growth is driven by strong demand for its latest iPhone lineup and a global surge in device upgrades,
The iPhone 17 series, launched in September, has delivered impressive performance across Apple’s key markets including the US and China. Counterpoint notes that the new models have triggered double-digit year-on-year sales growth in both regions. Analysts attribute this momentum not only to the popularity of the devices but also to improved US-China trade dynamics and a weakening US dollar, which has made Apple products more attractive in emerging markets.
The research firm’s projections indicate that Apple will surpass Samsung Electronics Co. this year. iPhone shipments are forecast to grow by 10% in 2025, significantly outpacing Samsung’s expected growth rate of 4.6%.
With the global smartphone market projected to expand by 3.3% next year, Apple is expected to secure a 19.4% market share. This will mark its first return to the No. 1 position since 2011.
Highlighting the shift in consumer behaviour, Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”
The momentum is expected to carry Apple well into the future. Counterpoint forecasts that the company will widen its lead with the anticipated 2026 launch of a foldable iPhone and a more affordable iPhone 17e. Apple is also reportedly preparing a major iPhone redesign for 2027, as previously revealed by Bloomberg.
Analysts predict Apple will maintain its position as the top smartphone vendor through 2029, thanks to these upcoming product cycles.
Meanwhile, Apple has recently confirmed that its sales are growing faster than earlier estimates. The Cupertino Giant is also projected to reach nearly $140 billion in revenue during the ongoing holiday quarter.
FAQs
Q1. When will Apple overtake Samsung as the world’s top smartphone brand?
Answer. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is projected to surpass Samsung in 2025, reclaiming the No. 1 spot for the first time since 2011.
Q2. What factors are driving Apple’s growth in smartphone shipments?
Answer. Strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, favourable US‑China trade dynamics, a weaker US dollar, and a major upgrade cycle post-COVID are boosting Apple’s shipments.
Q3. How does Apple plan to maintain its lead in the coming years?
Answer. Analysts expect Apple to sustain leadership through 2029 with upcoming launches like a foldable iPhone in 2026, a budget‑friendly iPhone 17e, and a major redesign in 2027.